Handicapping by Liz

Super Bowl XLVI or Super Bowl 46 is a rematch between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants from 4 years ago when the Patriots went into the Super Bowl undefeated and the Giants ended their chance to be the 2^nd undefeated team in NFL history making the 1972 Miami Dolphins still the only team to have accomplished an undefeated season.  Most of you already know that I am a Giants fan and very rarely if ever I pick them in my write-ups as I am biased. However, with only one game and unfortunately the last game of the season left I have to make a pick.

First of all, being a stat person I find one Super Bowl stat to be the strongest and that would be that only 6 times in the last 45 Super Bowls has the outright winner failed to cover and that includes 2 pushes. So what this means is pick the winner and don’t worry about the spread. So with that in mind I can’t go against the Giants in this game as they are indeed the Patriots biggest nemesis. Most of you know how good the Giants are on the road and the fact that Eli Manning is having the year of his life helped me with my decision to go with the Giants. Also the fact the Giants are underdogs and getting 3 points to me is just a perk. So I am taking the NEW YORK GIANTS with the 3 points as my final best bet of this NFL football season.  SORRY JIM !!

As for the over/under on this game that opened up at 55 or 55½ depending on where you looked and is now at 53 makes me a little leery of making the over a best bet but to be honest with you I will be betting the over but the Giants are my best bet.

Thanks again to all of you who have been reading my write-ups thru the season.

I will be back on Monday with my final NFL and College stats.

As always remember to bet with your head and not over it.    

Another off week in the playoffs as I went 0-2 ATS losing the Patriots not covering by 7 and the Giants/49ers game not going over the total. On a bright note the Giants are in the Super Bowl and I will call it the “REMATCH” Bowl as the Pats try and get redemption for the last Super Bowl they played against the Giants and lost. I am still 6-4 ATS overall for the playoffs and with one game left I hope to better that record. All my stats for the college and pro season are below.

2011-12 Bowl game final stats

Best Bets 11-10-1ATS

2011 College Final year to date stats 

Best Bets 38-22-1 ATS and 54-7 SU  (almost  64%)

Regular Plays 28-37-2 ATS and 53-14 SU

Underdogs 30-29-1 ATS and 22-38 SU

Over/Unders 29-19 ATS

College Marquee game opinion 7-5 ATS and 7-5 SU

2011 NFL year to date final stats 

Best Bets 29-22 ATS and 39-12 SU  (almost 57%)

Regular Plays 20-24-3 ATS and 32-15 SU

Underdogs 22-26-2 ATS and 19-30-1 SU

Over/Unders 38-26 ATS

2011-12 NFL Playoff stats to date 

Best Bets 6-4 ATS

I will be back next week with my picks for the big game SUPER BOWL XLVI.

Enjoy the Pro Bowl next Sunday as football games are winding down.

I will be hard pressed to top my last week’s picks as I went 4-0 ATS with my best bets but I sure hope to keep the streak going with my picks for this week’s Conference Championship games. I am thrilled the Giants are still in it but not as thrilled about the Ravens. No offense to Raven fans but your team lacks so much on offense it would be a very boring Super Bowl sort of like the games between LSU and Alabama this year. Well onto my picks for 2 of the last 3 games in this NFL season, BUMMER.

Current NFL playoff record 6-2 ATS.

My first best bet this weekend is the same as last week as I like the OVER 42 in the New York Giants and San Francisco49ers game. The line in some sports books opened up at 45 and has settled at 42 for the time being. The last time these 2 teams played on November 13^th in San Francisco the 49ers beat the Giants 27-20 and that over/under was 42½. I guess the odds makers this time thought that wasn’t high enough so they set it at 45 and the betting public almost immediately bet it down to 42, which I think is very doable even with rain in the forecast. It looks like the rain will be showers and not much accumulation and if they keep the field covered, I don’t think the field will be in that bad a shape. The forecast for Sunday is only a 50% of showers with the temperature in the high 50’s, but we all know how accurate weathermen are. SMILE !! Both teams are just about at full strength even though Eli Manning had a stomach bug and Victor Cruz is nursing a quad injury. For the 49ers Ted Ginn Jr. suffered a right knee injury against the Saints and still remains questionable but I think he’ll play as well. Both these teams will try and establish the run but to me the team that stops the run will eventually be the winner but if the Giants don’t stop the run and fall behind they definitely have more offensive weapons to make a comeback than the 49ers do if they fall behind. I see this game once again in the 20’s for both teams and with that being said the over 42 will hopefully happen earlier than it did last week in the Giants/Packers game. AND let’s hope the officiating in this game is a WHOLE lot better than it was last week in the Giants/Packers game. Bet the over 42 it will happen.  GO GIANTS !!

My last best bet this weekend again is on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS giving the Baltimore Ravens 7 points. (Smile Jim and Brian, Sorry Zack) I must admit there is some bias here as I just don’t see a one dimensional offensive team like the Ravens being able to compete offensively with the Patriots. Like last week it will have to be the Ravens defense that keeps them in this game. I strongly believe that Belichick will be able to devise a defensive plan against Ray Rice, and if you take Ray Rice out of the Ravens offense they will lose, no question about it.  I also believe that between Belichick and Brady they will also come up with a plan to keep the Ravens’ defense off guard especially since they have the best 2 tight ends in the NFL. Both of them will get open and both of them will burn the Ravens. I know these 2 teams usually play very close games as the Patriots haven’t beaten the Ravens by more than touchdown since 2004, but the Pats are 3-1-1 ATS the last 5 games in New England against Baltimore so they know how to beat the Ravens at home. I just have a gut feeling after watching Brady play last week that he is on a mission this year to get back to the Super Bowl and I just don’t see the Baltimore Ravens even with their outstanding defense getting in Brady’s way. The Pats will win and cover this game but it won’t be a game for the faint of heart.

As always remember to bet with your head and not over it.    

Well I just couldn’t do any better than 4-0 ATS with my best bets this past weekend. I had the over in the Giants and Patriots game, the Texans with the points and the Patriots.  What a great comeback after going 2-2 the week before. I wonder how many people would have bet that both the Packers and Saints would be out of the playoffs, I know I would have bet that wouldn’t happen. The best game of the weekend was the Saints/49ers game followed closely by the Giants/Packers game. The Patriots game was a blowout and the Ravens game was as boring as I thought it would be. I am thrilled the Giants are still in it. There is a real possibility that the Harbaugh brothers could be playing each other in the Super Bowl, how cool would that be?  Well now that there are only 3 games left in the season and my playoff record stands at 6-2 ATS I feel pretty confident that I will have a winning playoff record. So below are my stats for the both the college and pro season as well as the bowl and NFL playoffs.

2011-12 Bowl game final stats

Best Bets 11-10-1ATS

2011 College Final year to date stats 

Best Bets 38-22-1 ATS and 54-7 SU  (almost  64%)

Regular Plays 28-37-2 ATS and 53-14 SU

Underdogs 30-29-1 ATS and 22-38 SU

Over/Unders 29-19 ATS

College Marquee game opinion 7-5 ATS and 7-5 SU

2011 NFL year to date final stats 

Best Bets 29-22 ATS and 39-12 SU  (almost 57%)

Regular Plays 20-24-3 ATS and 32-15 SU

Underdogs 22-26-2 ATS and 19-30-1 SU

Over/Unders 38-26 ATS

2011-12 NFL Playoff stats to date 

Best Bets 6-2 ATS

I will be back on Saturday with my picks for the Conference Championship games.

Well I was off to a good start on Saturday hitting both the Saints and the over and then lost it all back on Sunday with the over in the Giants game and Pittsburgh.  So only 2-2 ATS last week so I hope to do better this weekend.  I just didn’t see Tebow and the Broncos actually having an offense this past weekend and I didn’t realize that Big Ben was just not mobile enough to make the big plays when they needed them. I loved the Giants winning convincingly but it didn’t give them much love from the bookmakers this weekend as the line is over a touchdown. I think the best game of the weekend will definitely be between the 49ers and Saints. I am pretty sure this is the first time in the divisional playoffs that a road team is favored over a home team off a bye week. I have looked over the lines for these games and boy, a couple of them are much higher than I would have made them. Well enough chit chat onto my best bets for this weekend in the divisional playoffs.

My first best bet this weekend is on the OVER 52½ in the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers game. The last time these 2 teams played on December 4^th, they scored 73 points so when you see the line at 52 ½, to me you grab it before it goes any higher. As a matter of fact since 2007 the last 4 times they have played each other the game has gone over. I know they expect about 4 inches of snow this week in Green Bay but the weather is looking good for Sunday as it will be clear, sunny, a slight wind and in the low 20’s for the game. This only helps my opinion that this will be an over game. I must admit I was surprised that the Giants held the Falcons to only 2 points but think about it, this game is in Green Bay and do you really believe the Giants will hold Green Bay to only 2 points?  So the Giants are facing a defense that they can run and throw against and most likely will also score against. The Packers can score against anyone, except maybe the Chiefs <smirk>. But the bottom line is that neither of these teams will hold back and with that being said I can see the final score of this game being in the high 50’s or maybe even low 60’s. Bet the over it will happen and probably well before the end of the game.

Next, best bet this weekend goes to the HOUSTON TEXANS on the road getting 9 points from the Baltimore Ravens. (Sorry Zack). I do believe the Ravens will win this game I just don’t believe they will cover the spread. This in most people’s opinion will be a low scoring game and if that’s the case the Texans can score 10 points and most likely cover as the Ravens will have to score 20 points to cover and I just don’t see it. The Ravens offense consists of Ray Rice running and also Ray Rice running and to top it off they’ve got Ray Rice even catching passes out of the backfield. WOW what an offense. Also if the Texans get up by 10 points then that throws a monkey wrench into the Ravens offense which means that Joe Flacco will have to throw the ball and his stats are mediocre at best. I’m really not sure what the oddsmakers were thinking but if you can still get 9 points Sunday then grab them and if you can get a bet in now then grab the points now. This game in my opinion will be won by the Raven’s defense not their offense. Take the 9 points, Houston will cover and I would not be surprised if they won outright.

My next best bet this weekend, and I hope God doesn’t take this wrong but I’m backing the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS giving the Denver Broncos 13½ points. The Broncos certainly surprised me last week but in retrospect which is always 20/20 the Steelers lost 2 defensive linemen, Keisel and Hampton in the 1^st quarter and with them they lost their pass rush and gave Tebow time to throw. They also didn’t have Pouncey at center and that cost the Steelers as well as Legursky’s snaps were high most of the day when Ben was in the shotgun. Overall, yes the Broncos won and played very well but they were playing a team that played with a lot of key players missing and/or hurt. This week they go into New England and play a team that already beat them this year in Denver by 18 and a team that also had a week off to heal some wounds. In fact since 1996 wild card teams that were 6 points or greater underdogs as was the case last week with Denver, are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS the next week. Only a couple of teams have pulled an upset as a home dog of more than 6 points and both of them lost and didn’t cover the following week. These are stats that are very believeable as the Broncos have to be drained from that game and on top of it they have to travel across the country on one less day’s rest. This does not bode well for Denver. Also, Belichick is a master during the playoffs and I for one can’t wait to see his game plan. I don’t think the Pats will come out in a coma like they did on December 18^th in Denver but I think they will come out guns blazing and by the time Denver gets into the game it could well be out of reach. I do worry a little bit about a backdoor cover but not enough to not make this one of my best bets of the weekend. Once again I hope God does not take this the wrong way, but lay the points the Pats will move on and the Broncos will go home.  I am also making the OVER 50 ½ in this game as my last best bet of the weekend as I think the final score could be something like 38-21. This pick should make my friends, Jim and Brian very happy.

As always remember to bet with your head and not over it.    

I was very disappointed in my final stats for the bowl season as I went a paltry 11-10-1 ATS with my best bets.  LSU losing to Alabama last night was just agonizing to watch as I was hoping LSU would win so that the BCS would be forced to decide who actually should be second as I would have to say Oklahoma State should be there and Alabama would have to be below Oregon as well but it didn’t happen and now I’m sure the BCS will put Alabama first although in all fairness it should be a tie between LSU and Alabama as both teams beat each other.  Oh well below are my stats for the college football season and my stats for the NFL regular season and my first stats for the NFL playoffs.

2011-12 Bowl game final stats

Best Bets 11-10-1 ATS

2011 College Final year to date stats 

Best Bets 38-22-1 ATS and 54-7 SU  (almost  64%)

Regular Plays 28-37-2 ATS and 53-14 SU

Underdogs 30-29-1 ATS and 22-38 SU

Over/Unders 29-19 ATS

College Marquee game opinion 7-5 ATS and 7-5 SU

2011 NFL year to date final stats 

Best Bets 29-22 ATS and 39-12 SU  (almost 57%)

Regular Plays 20-24-3 ATS and 32-15 SU

Underdogs 22-26-2 ATS and 19-30-1 SU

Over/Unders 38-26 ATS

2011-12 NFL Playoff stats to date 

Best Bets 2-2 ATS

I will be back on Friday with my NFL playoff picks for this weekend.

The playoffs are here and the match-ups and spreads in these Wild Card games are interesting to say to the least. I will give a pick on either the side or the total or maybe even both in the playoff games this weekend. The NFL playoffs will follow the same format as I used in the bowl games I will only give you my best bets. Below are my picks for this weekend.

My first best bet is on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at home giving the Detroit Lions 10½ points. I know this is a big line especially for the playoffs but the Saints are playing in another dimension and once they get up by 2 touchdowns they will take control of this game on both sides of the ball. This is Detroit’s first playoff game since 1999 and they did it with a rookie quarterback and a wide receiver nicknamed Megatron. Detroit will have more opportunities in the future but the present belongs to the Saints and Drew Brees and a cast of all-pro receivers. I think the downfall in this game for Detroit is when they do get down by double digits that they will start to lose their cool and with that will come penalties that will only make matters worse. The Saints are a perfect 8-0 ATS at home this year and this streak will continue with a convincing win over the Detroit Lions. Lay the 10½ points the Saints will take no prisoners. I also have a best bet on the OVER 58½ in this game as the over for the Saints is 6-1-1 ATS the last 8 playoffs games at home and I think Detroit will score a few touchdowns to help push this game over the total. BTW this is the highest over/under line ever in the playoffs.

Next, best bet this weekend goes to the PITTSBURGH STEELERS on the road giving the Denver Broncos 9 points. I’m sorry to say the Tebow magic has faded as teams have had more and more film to look at and analyze Tebow’s quarterback tendencies. This is probably why the Steelers are favored by 9 points on the road in the playoffs. It also helps to have a quarterback in Big Ben and wide receivers like Mike Wallace and Hines Ward on your side as well as a defense that is ranked 8^th in rush defense and number 1 against the pass, this does not bode well for Mr. Tebow and the Broncos.  I just don’t see how Denver will be able to score in this game as the Steelers defense will cut off McGahee, which will force Tebow to throw and most likely will result in at least one pick 6. Once the Broncos get behind the crowd will turn on them and that will mark the beginning of the end of the season for the Broncos. On a side note I would like to applaud Mike Tomlin on his decision not to play Ryan Clark who almost lost his life the last time they played in high altitudes, to me it was absolutely the right thing to do. Lay the 9 points the Steelers will win by double digits.

My last best bet this weekend is on the OVER 47 in the Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants game. Both these teams have excellent quarterbacks (I find it hard to say “elite” when you have Brees, Rodgers and Brady in the NFL) a decent running game and excellent wide receivers. Both these teams score in the mid 20’s and also give up in the mid 20’s and with everything on the line I expect both these teams to leave it all on the field. The weather in East Rutherford this Sunday will be perfect for football as the temperature will be in the mid 40’s, partly sunny with no rain and very little wind. You couldn’t ask for better weather to throw the ball in Giants Stadium. I look for both these teams to score enough points to put this game over early in the 4^th quarter.

As always remember to bet with your head and not over it.      

I will be back next week with the next round of playoff picks.

Don’t forget to read below this write-up for the rest of my bowl picks.

This is a late write-up to apologize for my Sugar Bowl write-up, VT did NOT beat Clemson in the ACC championship game but in fact lost to Clemson. I still like VT with the points against Michigan but I wanted to let my readers know that I had made a mistake about the outcome of the ACC championship game.

It was a much better Monday with my best bets as I went 3-1 ATS losing the Georgia game in overtime. So I now stand at 10-8 ATS and that’s winning to me. It has been a pleasure doing this again this year and I hope to do it again next year. And now with only 6 bowl game left I will give you my best bets for the remaining bowl games.

2011-12 College BOWL Games up-to-date stats 

Best Bets 10-8 ATS

My first best bet is on Monday, January 9^th and it’s on LSU getting a point from Alabama in the BCS CHAMPIONSHIP BOWL. I like LSU plain and simple and why they are getting a point is beyond my intelligence. In my opinion this game should be between Oklahoma State and LSU not Alabama but that’s the BCS for you. They beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa so I see no reason why they can’t beat them New Orleans. After going undefeated in the very tough SEC, I can’t see LSU all of a sudden losing this final game against a team they already beat AND being the underdog besides. Why the bookmakers think Alabama should be favored is just giving LSU more fuel for the fire, snubbing them as the favorite in this game. Take the point LSU won’t need it they will win this game and prove they deserve to be the BCS champions.

My next best bet is on Sunday, January 8^th, in the GODADDY.COM BOWL between Northern Illinois and Arkansas State and I like the OVER 63. These 2 teams both average in the 30’s and I think this will be a very offensive minded game with both teams having very good quarterbacks in Alpin for the Red Wolves and Harnish for the Huskies. This should be a very entertaining game as both teams should have no problem scoring. Take the over in this game as it should be over before the start of the fourth quarter.

My next best bet is on Wednesday, January 4^th, in the ORANGE BOWL between West Virginia and Clemson and I like the OVER 62. Both these teams can score as WVU’s quarterback Geno Smith has thrown for 25 touchdowns and Clemson’s Tajh Boyd throwing for 31. Also, both defenses give up almost 4 touchdowns a game so there might not be much defense in this game. This should also be a very entertaining game as I like an offensive game over a defensive one. Take the over in this game as it could be over shortly after halftime.

My last best bet of the college season is tonight on VIRGINIA TECH getting 3 points from Michigan in the SUGAR BOWL. In bowl games I always like to bet against the Big 10 and on ACC underdogs, this is the case in this game. Not that I don’t have great respect for what Michigan’s coach has done this year but playing in the Big 10 and playing in the ACC to me are two different things. VT beat Clemson in the ACC championship game and I see momentum from that win carrying into this bowl game. The only thing worrying me is the suspension of both place kickers for VT. I think Denard Robinson will keep Michigan in the game but in the end VT will come out on top. Grab the 3 points but I don’t think VT will need them as they win this game on the up but it will be close.

I will be back on Friday night with my NFL playoff picks.

As always, remember to bet with your head and not over it.   

We are now at the end of the NFL regular season and for me I am sad to see another year end but the playoffs are upon us and I am thrilled the Giants are in it. My NFL best bets for the year ended well as I went 2-1 ATS this week and over 500 for the entire season. I am currently at 7-7 in the bowls as I had a bad Saturday going 2-4 with my best bets. I hope to do better today(Monday). Below on my stats for the bowl games and the weekly and final stats for the NFL

2011-12 Bowl game stats

Best Bets 7-7 ATS

2011 College Final year to date stats 

Best Bets 38-22-1 ATS and 54-7 SU

Regular Plays 28-37-2 ATS and 53-14 SU

Underdogs 30-29-1 ATS and 22-38 SU

Over/Unders 29-19 ATS

College Marquee game opinion 7-5 ATS and 7-5 SU

Week 17 NFL stats 

Best Bets 2-1 ATS and 2-1 SU

Regular Plays 2-1 ATS and 3-0 SU

Underdogs 0-2-1 ATS and 0-3 SU

Over/Unders 2-2 ATS

2011 NFL year to date stats 

Best Bets 29-22 ATS and 39-12 SU

Regular Plays 20-24-3 ATS and 32-15 SU

Underdogs 22-26-2 ATS and 19-30-1 SU

Over/Unders 38-26 ATS

I will be back later tonight or early Tuesday with my bowl picks for this week.