I hope these picks are all winners AGAIN this week

 

My first pick this week is on Thursday and I’m going with the Texas Longhorns at home hosting Texas A&M laying 35 points. I know that’s a lot of points, but Texas still has a shot at the BCS title game so they are going to have to beat A&M by a big margin to keep their hopes alive and I believe they will.  The stats favor Texas as well as the home team in this series is 8-2 ATS and the Longhorns are 5-1 ATS the past 6 meetings at home. This is also a revenge game for Texas as A&M beat them last year at College Station, but Toto this isn’t College Station.

Seeing I did good with Mississippi last week I’m sticking with them again this week at home playing their in-state rival Mississippi State on Friday laying 14 points. The stats favor Mississippi as well as they are 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 home games. They are also 4-1-1 ATS the past 6 meetings between these two teams and the home team is 5-2-1 ATS the past 8 meetings. This is also Mississippi’s last game and I’m sure they would love nothing more than to be riding a 5 game winning streak into the bowl season. And lest we forget, Mississippi State won this game last year so there is a little revenge as well.

 

I am also going to back USC  this week at home laying 30 points to Notre Dame. Notre Dame has looked bad the past couple of weeks against Navy and Syracuse, so how could you not back USC which will probably have the lead right from the get go and will NOT let Notre Dame back into the game like Notre Dame did against Navy and Syracuse the past 2 weeks. The stats also favor USC as they are 5-1 ATS the last 6 meetings at home against N.D. and the favorite is 6-1 ATS the past 7 in this series. And like Texas I’m sure USC still has high hopes for getting into the BCS title game and they will have to blow out N.D. and then UCLA to keep their chances alive. Lay the 30 points as Notre Dame may not hit double digits.

 

Next, I’m going with the red hot Florida Gators on the road at Florida State laying 16.5 points. This is a pick that does go against most of the stats but Florida has been on a roll after losing to Mississippi on 9/27 going 6-0 ATS and winning by an average of 41 points during this run. Florida has won the past 4 meetings between these two including 2 at FSU. Florida is also very much alive in the hunt for the BCS title game and I don’t see them letting up against anyone right now. This is their last regular season game and I know they would love nothing more than to go into the SEC title game on an eight game winning streak. Look for Florida to cover this number and possibly rest Tebow in the 4th quarter too.

 

Once again I’m taking Boise State at home on Smurf Field against Fresno State laying 3 TDs. Most years laying 3 TDs to Fresno State would be utterly insane, but this Fresno State team is not as good as past Fresno teams and Boise State needs to keep their perfect record intact in order to move up the BCS standings. In 2006, Boise State was favored by 21.5 points at home against Fresno State and won by 24 points, I can see the same thing happening this year. The stats also favor Boise as they are 6-1 ATS the last 7 meetings between these two and the favorite is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 6 meetings.

 
And last but certainly not least I am taking Texas Tech at home laying 20 points against Baylor. The only reason I can understand why this line is only 20 is because TT looked so bad last week against Oklahoma, but then again it was in Norman and it was Oklahoma. Texas Tech has beaten Baylor by more than 20 points the past 9 times they’ve played each other and there is no doubt in my mind that they will do it again. The stats even favor TT as they are 8-1 ATS the past 9 meetings between these two teams. Look for Texas Tech to take out their frustrations at home against a Baylor team that just isn’t going to be able to keep up with TT offensively or even defensively for that matter.

I am also leaning towards a few other games as well.
      LSU(-4.5),   Missouri(-14),   Florida Atlantic(-4.5)  and  Nevada(-4). 

    And last but not least my underdogs this week are:
    UTEP(+5.5),  Rice(+3),  Georgia Tech(+8),  and  New Mexico State(+6).

    Good Luck and as always bet with your head and not above it.

 

As for the Pros,

 

My first pick in the pros this week is Dallas (happy BJ !!) at home on Turkey Day hosting Seattle and laying 12.5 points. This is a Thanksgiving NFL game and Dallas has played a game on Thanksgiving ever since 1966 and their current record SU is 25-14-1, the tie occurred in 1969 against the 49ers. They are going for their third straight win on Thanksgiving and that would be their longest winning streak on Turkey Day since 1994-1996. The stats favor the road team and the underdog in this series as both are 4-0 ATS. However, now that Romo is back and has 2 games under his belt I look for Dallas to start their run at the playoffs, something that Seattle has no shot at, with only 2 wins this season.
Look for Dallas to cover this number and keep their winning streak alive on Turkey Day.

 

I’m also picking the Tennessee Titans to take out their frustrations on the Detroit Lions who are always home on Turkey Day, with the Titans laying 11 points. The only stat you have to know is that the Lions are 0-11 this year and I don’t see this being their first win. Look for the Titans to hold the toothless Lions to single digits and  to score at least 4 TDs against this very bad NFL team.

 

My next pick is the Indianapolis Colts on the road this week at Cleveland, laying 4.5 points.  I can’t understand, with Brady Quinn out for the season and having to rely on Derek Anderson again, how this line isn’t at least 6 points. I have no stats to back this pick other than it’s Anderson vs. Manning. Peyton Manning is also facing the 28th ranked pass defense. Cleveland is 2-4 ATS this year at home, make it 2-5. Lay the small number.

 

I told you last week I wanted to pick the Giants but was afraid to jinx them but this a game that has to be one of my best bets, as the Giants are laying 3.5 point on the road to the Redskins. Clinton Portis is not 100%, Jason Taylor is a day to day decision and Andre Carter the Redskins best pass rusher, may not play at all. Given these facts plus the stats favor the Giants and I have to say to….  Lay the 3.5 points and keep your fingers crossed that I didn’t  jinx them J

 

My last pick has to be on the hottest team in the AFC right now and that’s the New York Jets at home this week against the Denver Broncos laying 7.5 points. The Jets are coming home after a stellar performance on the road last week against the Tennessee Titans. Favre is finally feeling comfortable in the Jets offense and that spells bad news for the Broncos, who lost last week at home to the Oakland Raiders. The Jets are 11-6-1 ATS as a home favorite while Denver is 3-8 ATS as an away dog. You just have to take the hotter and better team playing at home against a perennially bad team on the road.

As for over/unders this week I like the over 46.5 in the Cardinals/Eagles game and I also like the over 43 in the Panthers/Packers game, and the over 47.5 in the Broncos/Jets game.

Wishing you and your family a very HAPPY TURKEY DAY.

Well that’s it for another week, GOOD LUCK !!

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