Handicapping by Liz

Well, so far not bad as I had TCU and the under, TCU won but didn’t cover but the game did go under the total, so I split there and then I had Notre Dame on Wednesday night and they beat Hawaii soundly.

There are 5 more bowl games to pick from this weekend and here are the ones I like the best.

My first pick is the Florida State Seminoles playing in the Champs Sports Bowl against Wisconsin laying 5.5 points. FSU to me is just the stronger team here as the Badgers are pretty much a one-dimensional running team and that will hurt them against FSU. The stats are pretty favorable too as FSU is 3-1-1 in bowl games versus the current Big Ten opponents and 8-2-1 ATS all-time. Bowden is 18-10-1 ATS in bowl games while Wisky’s head coach Bielema is 2-6 ATS as an away dog including bowls. The Badgers have also struggled this year against good defensive teams as they only scored a total of 40 points against Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa combined this year. With the line under a TD I look for FSU to win and cover the number.
  

Next, I’m going with the California Golden Bears in the Emerald Bowl against the Miami Hurricanes laying 8 points. The Bears come into this bowl game having won their last 2 games while Miami lost their last 2 games. This game is also being played in San Francisco which gives Cal a big fan edge. Cal has one of the best running backs in the country in Jahvid Best and I feel he will be a deciding factor in this game. Miami has a very young team so look for the Bears to keep pressure on the young Miami QBs. There aren’t a lot of stats for this game but I just have a feeling that Cal’s running game will keep Miami’s offense off the field and their defense on the field too long. I look for Cal to cover the number and the game to UNDER the 50 point total.

As for the other bowl games this weekend I am leaning towards Central Michigan with QB LeFevour to have a good game against Florida Atlantic even though FAU’s head coach Howard Schnellenberger is 5-0 SU and ATS in bowl games. I also am leaning towards North Carolina over West Virginia and in a low scoring affair I like Northern Illinois over Louisiana Tech, even though the game is in La. Tech’s backyard.
 
Good Luck and as always bet with your head and not above it.

As for the Pros, this week there are a few games I like alot

 My first pick in the pros this week is the Baltimore Ravens (smile Zack) at home this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars laying 11.5 points. The math is simple for the Ravens they win and their in. The Ravens are a very confident team right now and are on a high after beating Dallas in Dallas last week. The stats verify that, as the Ravens are 8-2 ATS the past 10 games and are unmerciful to teams with losing records as they are 6-0 ATS against losing teams. Look for the Ravens to have this game in hand from the onset. Lay the 11.5.

 I’m also picking the Pittsburgh Steelers at home this week against Cleveland laying 11 points. The Steelers have the number 2 spot locked up for the playoffs but after last week’s loss to the Titans I can’t see the Steelers losing this game and go into the playoffs on a 2 game losing streak. Also, Cleveland is just terrible this year and they haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in 5 games. The stats heavily favor the Steelers as they are 7-2-1 ATS the past 10 games with Cleveland and the favorite is 6-2-1 ATS the last 9 meetings. I just don’t see Cleveland playing hard in this game as they couldn’t even score a point against the Bengals last week at home. Look for Pittsburgh to score on both sides of the ball this week and cover the 11 point spread easily.

 Next, I am going with the Atlanta Falcons at home this week against the St. Louis Rams laying a whopping 15 points. I know in pro football laying that many points is very dangerous but the Falcons are on a roll and if they win they will win the NFC South and if  Carolina loses they will get the #2 seed in the playoffs and a first round bye, so much is at stake for the Falcons. As for the Rams, they haven’t won a game since October 19th and I certainly don’t see that changing this week. The stats also favor the Falcons as the home team is 5-0 ATS the last 5 meetings and the favorite is 6-0 ATS the last 6.  Look for the Falcons to score, and often, and win this game by at least 3 touchdowns.

My last  pick this week is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (happy Nick) at home against the Oakland Raiders laying 13 points. Once again a very large pointspread and with good reason, the Bucs need a win here and a Dallas loss to get into the playoffs. The Bucs are on a 3 game losing streak which is why they are in this situation. This is a must win for the Bucs and it helps that they are playing the Raiders. The home team is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams and if Garcia is on, they should win this game. Oakland is also 0-3 SU and ATS versus the NFC South and this year Oakland has been outscored on the road 25-13, let’s hope the Bucs can come up with a couple more points and cover the 13 point spread.
There are also a few underdogs this week I like. I can definitely see the Saints at home staying within the number against the Panthers, as the Panthers have nothing to play for. And I also like the Colts at home this week getting points from Tennessee that will most likely rest a lot of their starters as the Titans have nothing to play for. I would also like the Giants
this week getting points from Minnesota but at the time of this posting, Coughlin hasn’t said who he is going to rest this weekend.

 
As for over/unders this week I like the over 43 in the Lions/Packers game and I also like the over 44 in the Rams/Falcons game, the over 35.5 in the Jaguars/Ravens game and the over 41 in the Pats/Bills game.

Well that’s it for another week, GOOD LUCK !!