Playoff Picks

Jan.10, 2009 in Liz's Picks

I apologize for the late posting; it was due to a technical glitch. admin

Well, the game between Florida and Oklahoma last night ended up with Florida winning and covering and giving me a very good finish to the college and bowl season, but sadly the college football season is over with the exception of a few all-star games. A recap of the college season shows that I did have a decent first year of handicapping.

College Season ATS 78-59 and SU 97-40 (57% ATS)
Bowl games I picked, 16-10 ATS and 18-8 SU (62% ATS)

As for the pro’s regular season I ended up
Pros ATS 45-35 and SU 61-19 (56% ATS)

And so far in the playoffs I am
3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU
Over/Unders 2-1 ATS

So onto my picks in this week’s Divisional Playoffs

Just a couple of notes I found, about the Divisional Playoffs

Did you know that no team with 8 losses has ever reached the Championship round of the
playoffs?

Did you know that since 2001 only twice did all 4 home teams win in the Divisional round?

This is the first time since the 2005 season that all the teams involved in the Divisional playoffs, have played each other during the regular season, with only Carolina winning both the regular season and Divisional game, all the rest, split.

My first pick this weekend will again be the Baltimore Ravens on the road at Tennessee getting 3 points. These 2 teams played in October in Baltimore with the Titans winning the game 13-10. I think that Baltimore will return the favor and beat the Titans on the up. The Ravens are playing like a team on a mission and I believe that they will stop the Titans RBs and force Kerry Collins to win this game with his arm and that will play right into the hands of one of the best ball hogs the NFL has seen in a long time, in Ed Reed. The Ravens are 6-2
ATS the last 8 times in Tennessee and this will make it 7-2. The O/U on this game is 34 and I think this game will most likely go under, but I would tread lightly.

My second pick will be the Pittsburgh Steelers at home laying 6 points to the San Diego Chargers. This is also the second meeting between these 2 teams as Pitt won the first game at home in November by a score of 11-10. It was a very ugly game and I don’t think either team should have won, it was that bad. This game all comes down to how well the Steelers can control Sproles, as LT will probably not play, and how healthy Roethlisberger really is. With that being said I think the Steelers will win this game and cover the 6 point spread. The O/U on this game is 38 and I think it has a really good shot of going over, mostly because I think both defenses and special teams will contribute to the score.

This has to be the best OVER bet of the weekend and also the highest line at 48. I like the Arizona Cardinals to cover this big 10 point spread on the road at Carolina. The first game between these 2 teams was a come from behind win for the Panthers at home and they won 27-23. The Cardinals are getting absolutely no respect with this line and if they play like they did last week they have a very good shot of keeping this game close so I’m going to grab the points here. BUT like I said the over in this game is the better bet.

My last pick will be on New York Giants at home laying 4 points to the Philadelphia Eagles.
This to me, by far, is the most difficult pick of the weekend, as these 2 teams know each other very well and surprises will be at a minimum. I checked back and only 3 times in the past 10 meetings has the final score been less than a margin of 4, and in all 3 of those games the margin of victory was 3. In 2006 in the wildcard playoff round, Philly knocked out the Giants, I believe this will be an additional motivator for the Giants to bring their A game. If the Giants come out of the fog they have been in the past month, the Eagles will be in for a very long day. I look for both defenses to blitz Eli and Donovan all day and the QB who can deal with it the best will be the one who comes out on top. The Giants have the better running game, the better receivers and the better defense and will win this game by at least a TD. The O/U on this game is 40 and I think it has a good chance of going over, but it also has a good chance of going under so I’m going to pass.