So here we go, the Championship weekend, for a chance to go the Super Bowl.

I will preface my picks with the one stat that has been the strongest trend in the Championship playoff games for a very long time and the stat most bettors know.

Since 1993 in championship games that have point spreads under double digits, the straight up winner is an outrageous 24-0-1 ATS. So the pointspread really hasn’t come into play in this playoff round for a very long time, so the trick here is to pick the team I think will win and that team will most likely cover.


For me, as much as my heart is with the Cardinals, I just don’t see how they matchup very well against the Eagles. Warner is the better QB but then again he has better receivers, but he will be under constant pressure, and if the Cardinals can’t get anything out of their running game, that will spell turnovers for the Eagles, and depending where on the field they happen it will probably result in points as well. The Eagles offense wasn’t that good against the Giants last week, but the Cardinals are not the Giants and if McNabb has time he will complete passes down the field. McNabb also has the ability to run out of trouble something that Warner does not do and Warner has a tendency to hold the ball too long something that will cost them as well. So with that being said and based on that one stat, I will be picking the Philadelphia Eagles to win this game and cover the 4 points.

As for the over/under on this game which is currently at 47, I also have another stat. Since 1993, NFC title games have been a solid OVER as they are 11-4-1 ATS, so I will take the over in this game and see the score Philly 31-24.

  

As for the AFC Championship game, the current line is Pittsburgh by 6, a number that I thought was going to be the line for the Cardinals/Eagles game. What puzzles me about this number is that in the 2 games that Pitt and Baltimore played against each other this year Pitt won one game by 4 and the other by 3, so why 6??? I can only guess it is 6 because of the way the Steelers took care of the Chargers last week and the fact the Ravens only scored 13 points against Tennessee last week. You can tell by my dilemma about the line that picking the Steelers based on the one stat is difficult. I took a look at the injury reports for both teams and the Ravens are a hurting unit especially in the secondary, they already have 2 CBs and a Safety on IR, Samari Rolle is questionable with a groin injury and Jim Leonhard suffered a concussion last week and his status is also questionable. So even though the Steelers front line hasn’t really protected Big Ben well this year, he should be able to get the ball to his receivers. If the Steelers can get up early by double digits and put pressure on Flacco to throw the ball I think they will win this game by the 6 point spread. So my pick in the AFC Championship game is the Pittsburgh Steelers to win and cover the 6 points.

Now for the over/under on the game. Once again I will make my pick based on a Championship playoff stat. The Championship Playoff round has produced the highest scoring games, the last 14 contests(7 years AFC and NFC) have seen an average of 46 points scored. In that span, the OVER is on a strong run of 10-3-1 ATS. With this stat and the Ravens secondary being very bang up I can see this game going OVER the 34 point total. I see the score of this game, Pittsburgh 24-14.

So I see a Pennsylvania Super Bowl, something that has never happened.

Thanks for letting me share my thoughts on the games, and as always bet with your head and not over it.

 

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