Handicapping by Liz

Here we go with my Week 4 NFL picks.

Well, as a Giants fan I really don’t like picking them or against them, but they are my number 1 pick this week. The New York Giants are on the road this week against the Kansas City Chiefs laying 9 points and I think the way both teams are playing right now that this number should be higher. The Giants are a very very good road team as they are 21-5 ATS on the road the past 26 games and that’s 80% and too good in my book to pass up. The Giants defense shutout the Bucs last week and I can certainly see that happening again this week as the Chiefs are in a free fall and haven’t won a game in 2009. The Giants are 4-0 ATS the last 4 in this series and this will be 5.

My next pick will go to the Indianapolis Colts at home hosting the Seattle Seahawks. Unfortunately there is no line on this game as I am writing this but if the line is 13 or under this will be my pick. The Colts I know will be without Dwight Freeney and the Seahawks most likely will be without Matt Hasselback other than that I can’t seem to find a reason why this game is off the board. The Seahawks lost a heartbreaker last week to Chicago while the Colts lit it up in Arizona Sunday night. The Colts haven’t beaten the Seahawks the past 2 meetings in this series and I look for this trend to change as the Colts and Peyton are playing very good football.

I make this next pick because I think if the Titans are ever going to get one in the win column it will be this week against a Jaguar team they should beat. So I am taking the Tennessee Titans on the road at the Jacksonville Jaguars laying 3 points. The Titans are 5-2 ATS the last 7 games in Jacksonville and if they aren’t mad enough yet, being 0-3, to win this game handily then they might as well pack it in. Take the Titans laying 3 points and hope the sleeping giant will awake this weekend.

My last best pick this week is the Baltimore Ravens on the road at New England getting 1 point. I am going to continue to ride the Ravens train until it runs out of gas. To say that the Ravens offense (averaging 34 points a game) is outscoring the Patriots offense (averaging 20 points a game) is hard enough to believe but it is true. The stats also support this pick as the Ravens are 5-1 ATS the last 6 road games, they are also 6-1 ATS the last 7 games against the AFC. I just think the Ravens are the play here as there seems to be chinks in the Patriots armor and I believe the Ravens will exploit those weaknesses. (admin note: ouch)

Take the point with the Ravens who will probably win this game outright.

There are a few other games I like but the pointspreads are keeping me from making them strong plays. I like the Bengals laying 5 ½ points on the road at Cleveland, the 49ers at home giving the Rams 10 points and the Saints at home giving the Jets 6 ½ points.

As for over/under bets, which I have been absolutely horrible on, I will give it another try this week. I like the Bears/Lions game to go over the 39 total. I also like the over 42 ½ in the Dallas/Denver game. Last but not least I like the under 37 in the Bills/Dolphins game.

As always bet with your head not over it