Handicapping by Liz

Well, last week was the week from hell for me as the Eagles, Steelers and Vikings all lost against the spread, but like my good friend Moose the Greek told me, it’s a new week so go get ‘em :

So here we go with my Week 7 NFL picks.

My first pick this week is the Indianapolis Colts on the road at the St. Louis Rams laying 13 points. The Colts are on a roll this year led by Peyton Manning who is as close to perfect as you can get. The Colts are 4-0 SU and ATS after a bye and are playing with an intensity that will easily defeat the Rams, especially after the Rams got so close last week to beating the Jaguars on the road and have to be even more deflated. The Colts are also a very good road team as they are 6-1-1 ATS their past 8 road games and are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games as a road favorite of more than 10 points, and they are getting Bob Sanders back. Lay the 13 points and take the Colts.

Second pick goes to the New England Patriots giving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 ½ points with the game being played in London, England. These 2 teams are definitely going in opposite directions. The Pats are 6-3 ATS the last 9 games while the Bucs are 1-7 ATS the last 8 games and have lost their last 5 games. I would be very surprised if New England doesn’t crush the Bucs like the crushed the Titans. Lay the 14 ½ points, it should be a blowout.
PS – My good friend, Jim, who owns and runs this site, seems more concerned with the Patriots well-being, as they will be wearing a minuteman on their helmet in England :

My next pick is the Green Bay Packers on the road at Cleveland giving the Browns 9 ½ points. This line started out at 6 ½ points but the flu has brought down about 5 Brown players, who are probable for Sunday’s game, so the line shot up 3 points. There are other reasons besides the flu that influenced my decision to make the Pack a best bet. The Pack is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite, while the Browns are 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 home games. The Browns are also just one of the teams this year that you just can’t back and with Green Bay trying to keep pace with the Vikings, it just makes sense to go with the better team that has something to play for, which is why I am picking the Packers to cover the 9 ½ point spread.

Well, I’m finally going to pick the New Orleans Saints on the road at Miami to cover the 6 point spread. I really am a little concerned with this spread as Miami will never be able to keep up with New Orleans offensively, so why is the line only 6 ?? I can’t believe the wildcat offense is the reason or home field advantage, or playing outside in Miami, but if I can get the Saints giving only 6 points, I’m going to grab it. I did check some stats and Miami has actually beaten the Saints the past 2 times they played each other and both games were in New Orleans. So I’m sure N.O. will not be taking the Dolphins lightly and will bring their A game to this contest. This is not good news for the Dolphins, who will have to rely on Henne to keep up with Brees and I just don’t see that happening, wildcat or no wildcat. Lay the 6 points and take the Saints.

There are a few other games I like but not as strong. I look for the Philadelphia Eagles to bounce back this weekend on the road and cover the 7 point spread against the Redskins. And once again there are 2 underdogs this weekend that I believe are live dogs, I like the Minnesota Vikings on the road at Pittsburgh getting 5 ½ points, and the Chicago Bears on the road getting a point from the Cincinnati (who will they be this week) Bengals. I am not making this a pick but I just think that the Jets who have lost 3 in a row (ATS and SU) should not be favored on the road even if it is the Raiders.

As for over/under bets, I like the over 44 in the San Francisco/Houston game,
the over 45 in the Minnesota/Pittsburgh game, and I like the over 47 in the Atlanta/Dallas game, and finally I like the under in the Jets/Oakland game.

I would just like to end with the fact that I could not think of a worse torture last week then watching the Giants get dissected by the Saints. Hopefully, the Giants will not allow any NFL team to get the game films from that game.
Well, that’s it for another week, so as always bet with your head not over it