Handicapping by Liz

Another week of college picks below..

This week’s first pick goes to Rutgers on the road at Syracuse laying 9 ½ points. Rutgers has been playing very good ball lately and have won the last 3 games, 2 of them on the road, while Syracuse has lost the last 3 games. A few stats to make my point, Rutgers has outscored Syracuse the past 4 meetings by a margin of 132-47 with a 24 point a game average margin of victory. So this spread of 9 ½ does not scare me, lay the points.

Staying in the Big East my next pick is on South Florida at home to cover the 11 ½ point spread against Louisville. South Florida has had over a week to mull over the loss to Rutgers and being shutout, this should give them more than enough incentive to take out its frustrations on Louisville, who hasn’t won a game on the road all season. Add on top for good measure, Louisville won their last meeting and you got a recipe for a good old fashion ass whoopin’. Look for South Florida to keep Louisville out of the end zone and to score on both offense and defense.

Coming in 3rd on my list is my Smurf boys, Boise State on the road at Utah State laying 23 points on Friday night. The last time Boise won by less than 23 points was 1999 and of course none of these players were there, so let me put it to you this way, in the past 3 years Boise State has outscored Utah State by a margin of 150-24 and with a BCS bowl bid oh so close to their reach I can see this another 28+ point spread win for them. Boise State is also 11-4 ATS in Friday night games and they are 5-0 ATS the last 5 meetings at Utah State and 6-1 ATS their last 7 conference games. You have to like Boise State to keep their BCS hopes alive at the expense of yet another WAC team. Lay the 23 points, the Smurfs will cover.

Next pick goes to Florida State at home giving Maryland 19 ½ points. Florida State is coming home after a 2 game road trip which they split, however, this is Maryland’s 3rd road game in the past month and the Terrapins are also on a 5 game losing streak. Florida State is 7-1 ATS the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams in Florida State and I don’t see that changing, especially with Maryland’s QB Chris Turner doubtful for this game. FSU has already played a game with their 2nd string QB, Manuel, and he did well in their win against Wake Forest at Wake Forest. Also in the past 14 meetings between these 2 teams the favorite and home team is 10-4 ATS. Look for FSU to take most of the game to cover but in the end they will wear Maryland down and cover the 19 ½ point spread in front of a frenzied home crowd.

My last best bet this weekend goes to the red hot Clemson Tigers at home hosting Virginia and giving them 21 points. These 2 teams are definitely going in different directions as Clemson has won their last 5 games and Virginia has lost their last 4. Clemson’s C.J. Spiller is on course for being a leading candidate for the Heisman and I don’t see a way Virginia can stop him. Clemson has numerous ATS trends going as they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 conference games, 5-0 ATS their last 5 games overall, 5-0 ATS their last 5 games on grass and the list goes on and on. Look for Clemson to win this game at home where they have beaten opponents by an average 33-11margin and move on to the ACC championship game against Ga Tech. Lay the 3 TDs they will cover.

Other games I like as regular plays are Texas to cover the 27 ½ points at home against Kansas. Houston to bounce back and cover the 23 ½ points at home against Memphis. Nevada on the road laying 30 points to crush New Mexico State. Marshall to cover the 3 points at home against SMU. I like UCLA at home to cover the 5 points against Arizona State. And last but not least I like the Oregon State Beavers to cover the 30 points on the road at Washington State.

My dogs this week are Army on the road getting 2 ½ points from North Texas. Also Arizona at home getting 7 points from Oregon. I also like Northwestern at home getting 7 points from Wisconsin. Add Air Force getting 10 points on the road at BYU. And my last favorite underdog this week is LSU on the road at Mississippi getting 4 ½ points.

As for my over/under bets
the over 59 in the Nevada/New Mexico State game,
the over 56 in the Oregon State/Washington State game,
the over 47 ½ in the Ohio State/Michigan game,
the over 43 in the Minnesota/Iowa game,
and the over 50 ½ in the Wisconsin/Northwestern game.

Well, that’s it for another week, I will be back shortly with my pro picks.

As always bet with your head not over it :