WEEK 10 NFL PICKS

Nov.11, 2011 in Liz's Picks

Week 10 of the NFL and another team gets the goose egg off their record as Miami blows out Kansas City and at Arrowhead no less. The only remaining winless team is the Colts and I’m sure this isn’t sitting well with Colts’ fans as they are use to being at least 6-2 at this point in the season. Well the Colts are home this week against Jacksonville so maybe just maybe they might get a few breaks and beat the Jaguars, for the sake of the Colts’ faithful I sure hope so for them. Well the Giants pulled off another victory against the Patriots and talk about coincidences, Ballard who made the game winning catch in the end zone wears number 85, which was the number that David Tyree wore in the Super Bowl when he made that catch off his helmet. Coincidence? Well onto my picks for this week in the NFL.

My first best bet this week is on the HOUSTON TEXANS on the road giving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 ½ points. (Sorry Nick) These 2 teams only play each other every 4 years so there is not a lot of stats to use for this game, but the Texans are playing head and shoulders above the Bucs and I just know that the Texans will win this game and easily cover the 3 ½ point spread. Also, the Bucs are not a good home team as they are 1-2 SU this year. They are also not doing well against the spread as they are 3-5 this year. Houston on the other hand is 5-3-1 ATS and 2-2 on the road. Look for Schaub to carve up the Bucs defense and for Freeman to continue throwing more INTs than touchdowns. I love the fact this game is inTampa or the line on this game would be closer or above 7 points. Lay the 3 ½ points the Texans will take no prisoners.

Next, pick this weekend goes to the NEW YORK JETS at home giving the New England Patriots a point. (Real sorry, Jim) What is wrong with the Patriots right now is the question I’m asking, they can’t stop any offense this year as they are giving up almost as many points as they score. The Jets came out last week after the bye and took it the Bills, while the Pats lost with 8 seconds left to the Giants. As you would expect the stats favor the Patriots and the line reflects this as they are only getting a point when home field usually counts for at least 2 points. The Jets beat the Pats in Foxborough just about a month ago and I can see the same outcome here. It will be a tight contest but with the Jets basically having to just win, I will lay the point and take the Jets at home.

My third choice and last best bet this week is on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at home giving the Denver Broncos 3 ½ points. The Broncos made a statement last week beating the Raiders in Oakland, while the Chiefs got pounded by the Dolphins giving them their first win of the season. You know when a team loses 7 games in a row there is a lot of pent up frustration and it all came out last week against the Chiefs. I think the Chiefs just got a little too complacent afterall they were on a 4 game winning streak and the Dolphins were winless. I look for the Chiefs to come out and show the weaknesses of the Broncos new hero, Tim Tebow, and get a convincing win at home in Arrowhead, after failing their fans last week. The major trend in this game is the over as it has hit 8 times out of the past 10 games in Kansas City. Lay the points here the Chiefs will rebound and win this game by double digits.

As for regular plays, I like the Carolina Panthers at home giving the Tennessee Titans 3 ½ points. I also like the Miami Dolphins at home to cover the 4 points against the Washington Redskins. And finally I like the Philadelphia Eagles at home to cover the 14 points against the Arizona Cardinals, it’s their week to play Dr. Jekyl.

As for underdogs, I like the Cincinnati Bengals at home getting 3 points from the Pittsburgh Steelers. I also like the Minnesota Vikings on the road on Monday night getting 13 points from the Green Bay Packers. Finally I like the New York Giants on the road getting 3 ½ points from the San Francisco49ers.

My over/under picks include the over 41 in the Broncos/Chiefs game, the over 50 ½ in the Vikings/Packers game, the over 41 ½ in the Steelers/Bengals game and because I’m doing so well picking unders I like the under 37 ½ in the Redskins/Dolphins game.

Good Luck this weekend and as always bet with your head not over it.