WEEK 12 NFL PICKS

Nov.26, 2011 in Liz's Picks

Week 12 of the NFL and because this is being written after the Turkey Day games there are 3 fewer games to pick from. Our guest handicapper Moose the Greek had a rough day but as we ALL know “s—t happens” and if we always won betting football, then everyone would be doing it. As handicappers we have no control over the games, we do research, look for trends and give you our best handicapping opinion, and like I always say at the end of every post, bet with your head and not over it. So I will do my best to give you my best picks from the games left for Sunday and Monday. Here are my picks for this week in the NFL, and because my good friend, Clive asked me to not pick the Rams I will be avoiding that game.

My first best bet this week is on the HOUSTON TEXANS on the road giving the Jacksonville Jaguars 3½ points. Even though Matt Schaub is gone for the year for the Texans and they have to rely on Matt Leinhart, I still believe they will win and cover this game. Jacksonville’s offense is averaging only 12 ppg while Houston’s offense is averaging 27 ppg and even without Schaub they should still be able to run the ball with Arian Foster. The Texans defense is ranked #1 giving up only 16 ppg, so scoring for the Jaguars will not be any easier this week. Houston has a 2 game league in the AFC South so I see them keeping Leinhart’s calls close to the vest to keep turnovers at a minimum. This will be a close game but the Texans defense will shutdown the Jags anemic offense and the Texans offense will score enough points to keep the Jags at arms length. Lay the 3½ points I see the Texans winning this game by at least 10 points.

Next, pick this weekend goes to the CINCINNATI BENGALS at home giving the Cleveland Browns 9 points. The Browns will once again be without their star running back, Peyton Hillis, and this is a big loss for a team that hasn’t scored a TD in the 1^st or 3^rd quarter all year. The Bengals need a division win, so they will be focused as they lost a big game last week to Baltimore on the road. They return home this week to take on the Browns who are an awful 1-3 on the road this year. Cincy is 9-1-1 ATS the last 11 games against the AFC, while Cleveland is 2-8-1 ATS the last 11 games against the AFC. Cincy has won and covered the last 2 between these teams and are 7-3 SU the last 10 meetings. Cleveland won their game last week against the Jags by putting up a goal line stand, this week they face a much more balanced Bengals attack and I don’t think there will be any goal line stand this week as the Bengals should have this game in hand sometime in the 3^rd quarter when they go up by 2 touchdowns, an insurmountable task for the offensive Browns offense, who only average 14 points a game. Lay the 9 points here as the Bengals take out their frustrations on an underachieving Browns team.

My third choice and last best bet this week is on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS on the road giving the Kansas City Chiefs 10½ points. Not only are the Chiefs without starting quarterback Matt Cassel but this is a revenge game for the Steelers as they lost in Kansas City in 2009 in overtime and the Steelers are off a bye. Big Ben has a broken right thumb but is going to play. Tyler Palko will be facing a well rested Steelers defense that will be licking their chops with a rookie quarterback at the helm for the Chiefs. The only thing going for the Chiefs this week is that they are home, but if they get way behind the Chiefs crowd will turn on them and the boo birds will be out in force. Look for the rested Steelers to take the lead in this game early, and never look back. Lay the 10½ points as the Steelers will win and cover this rather easily.

As for regular plays, I like the New York Jets at home giving the Buffalo Bills 9 points. I also like the Carolina Panthers on the road to cover the 3½ points against the Indianapolis Colts. And finally I like the New England Patriots on the road to cover the 3 points against the Philadelphia Eagles.

As for underdogs, I like the Chicago Bears on the road getting 4 points from the Oakland Raiders. I also like the Denver Broncos on the road getting 6½ points from the Sand Diego Chargers. Finally I like the Washington Redskins on the road getting 3½ points from the Seattle Seahawks.

My over/under picks include the over 41½ in the Bills/Jets game, the over 41½ in the Bears/Raiders game, the over 39½ in the Steelers/Chiefs game and another under pick, I like the under 37½ in the Texans/Jaguars game.

Good Luck this weekend and as always bet with your head not over it.