WEEK 16 NFL PICKS

Dec.22, 2011 in Liz's Picks

Two weeks left in the regular season and the Colts finally get their first win, while the Packers get toasted by the Chiefs. The Giants can’t beat the Redskins and the Bills lose another game. To top it off there are still 2 divisions in each conference that haven’t been decided. Ah isn’t football grand ? <smile>. Well enough about last week here are my picks for this week.

My first best bet this week is on the CAROLINA PANTHERS at home giving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 points. After watching the Bucs get beat by Dallas last week I can’t see them caring much about these last 2 games. The Panthers on the other hand played a heck of a game last week against the Texans. Cam Newton is playing way above my expectations of him and now here I am in Week 16 backing him and the Panthers and laying 9 points to boot. Just a note and a few stats to back my pick, the Panthers just beat the Bucs on Dec. 4^th by 19 points, the Bucs are 3-7 ATS the last 10 meetings in Carolina and strange but true, the favorite in this series is 7-1 ATS the last 8 games and both have been the favorite. Bottom line, the Panthers are still playing to win and the Bucs are just playing to get the season over. Lay the 9 points the Panthers will maul the Bucs in this one. Sorry sometimes stupid quips just have to be put in print.

Next, pick this weekend goes to the DENVER BRONCOS on the road giving the Buffalo Bills 1½ points. (Sorry Sis) First of all, the Bills have lost 7 in a row although a few of their losses have been close, my question is do they really care at this point. The Bills play better at home than on the road, but the Broncos play better on the road then at home. There was so much promise for this Bills team at the start of the year but after they started losing you could see all the energy in their game go right out the window. The Broncos on the other hand are leading their division by a slim one game margin so every game is important to them. They are also emotionally high right now, as they are riding the Tebow train, and emotions at this point in the season are a big plus. Look for the Bills to give the Broncos a game for awhile but sometime in the fourth quarter Denver will ice this game away. Lay the 1½ points the Broncos rebound from their loss last week.

My third choice and my last best bet this week is tonight on the HOUSTON TEXANS on the road giving the Indianapolis Colts 6 points. This line has definitely been skewed with the Colts winning last week and the Texans losing. Houston has won their division but I’m sure with both Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 10-4 and the Patriots at 11-3, they know they still need to win in order to get a better position in the playoffs. I’m sure the Texans would much rather play at home than in Pittsburgh or Baltimore. So if that isn’t enough motivation to go into Indianapolis and take care of business than I don’t know what is. Lay the 6 points the Texans will end the Colts winning streak at one.

As for regular plays, I like the Green Bay Packers at home giving the Chicago Bears 13 points. I also like the Baltimore Ravens at home to cover the 13 points against the Cleveland Browns. And finally I like the New England Patriots at home to cover the 9½ points against the Miami Dolphins.

As for underdogs, I like the Philadelphia Eagles on the road getting a point from the Dallas Cowboys. (Sorry B-Jay) I also like the New York Giants on the road getting 3 points from the New York Jets. (Yes, Brad I’m picking the Giants) Finally I like the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road getting 7½ points from the Tennessee Titans.

My over/under picks include the over 50½ in the Eagles/Cowboys game, the over 44 in the Bears/Packers game, the over 47½ in the Bucs/Panthers game and my under pick this week is the under 38½ in the Browns/Ravens game.

Good Luck this weekend and as always bet with your head not over it.