Well I was off to a good start on Saturday hitting both the Saints and the over and then lost it all back on Sunday with the over in the Giants game and Pittsburgh.  So only 2-2 ATS last week so I hope to do better this weekend.  I just didn’t see Tebow and the Broncos actually having an offense this past weekend and I didn’t realize that Big Ben was just not mobile enough to make the big plays when they needed them. I loved the Giants winning convincingly but it didn’t give them much love from the bookmakers this weekend as the line is over a touchdown. I think the best game of the weekend will definitely be between the 49ers and Saints. I am pretty sure this is the first time in the divisional playoffs that a road team is favored over a home team off a bye week. I have looked over the lines for these games and boy, a couple of them are much higher than I would have made them. Well enough chit chat onto my best bets for this weekend in the divisional playoffs.

 

My first best bet this weekend is on the OVER 52½ in the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers game. The last time these 2 teams played on December 4th, they scored 73 points so when you see the line at 52 ½, to me you grab it before it goes any higher. As a matter of fact since 2007 the last 4 times they have played each other the game has gone over. I know they expect about 4 inches of snow this week in Green Bay but the weather is looking good for Sunday as it will be clear, sunny, a slight wind and in the low 20’s for the game. This only helps my opinion that this will be an over game. I must admit I was surprised that the Giants held the Falcons to only 2 points but think about it, this game is in Green Bay and do you really believe the Giants will hold Green Bay to only 2 points?  So the Giants are facing a defense that they can run and throw against and most likely will also score against. The Packers can score against anyone, except maybe the Chiefs <smirk>. But the bottom line is that neither of these teams will hold back and with that being said I can see the final score of this game being in the high 50’s or maybe even low 60’s. Bet the over it will happen and probably well before the end of the game.

 

 

Next, best bet this weekend goes to the HOUSTON TEXANS on the road getting 9 points from the Baltimore Ravens. (Sorry Zack). I do believe the Ravens will win this game I just don’t believe they will cover the spread. This in most people’s opinion will be a low scoring game and if that’s the case the Texans can score 10 points and most likely cover as the Ravens will have to score 20 points to cover and I just don’t see it. The Ravens offense consists of Ray Rice running and also Ray Rice running and to top it off they’ve got Ray Rice even catching passes out of the backfield. WOW what an offense. Also if the Texans get up by 10 points then that throws a monkey wrench into the Ravens offense which means that Joe Flacco will have to throw the ball and his stats are mediocre at best. I’m really not sure what the oddsmakers were thinking but if you can still get 9 points Sunday then grab them and if you can get a bet in now then grab the points now. This game in my opinion will be won by the Raven’s defense not their offense. Take the 9 points, Houston will cover and I would not be surprised if they won outright.

 

My next best bet this weekend, and I hope God doesn’t take this wrong but I’m backing the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS giving the Denver Broncos 13½ points. The Broncos certainly surprised me last week but in retrospect which is always 20/20 the Steelers lost 2 defensive linemen, Keisel and Hampton in the 1st quarter and with them they lost their pass rush and gave Tebow time to throw. They also didn’t have Pouncey at center and that cost the Steelers as well as Legursky’s snaps were high most of the day when Ben was in the shotgun. Overall, yes the Broncos won and played very well but they were playing a team that played with a lot of key players missing and/or hurt. This week they go into New England and play a team that already beat them this year in Denver by 18 and a team that also had a week off to heal some wounds. In fact since 1996 wild card teams that were 6 points or greater underdogs as was the case last week with Denver, are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS the next week. Only a couple of teams have pulled an upset as a home dog of more than 6 points and both of them lost and didn’t cover the following week. These are stats that are very believeable as the Broncos have to be drained from that game and on top of it they have to travel across the country on one less day’s rest. This does not bode well for Denver. Also, Belichick is a master during the playoffs and I for one can’t wait to see his game plan. I don’t think the Pats will come out in a coma like they did on December 18th in Denver but I think they will come out guns blazing and by the time Denver gets into the game it could well be out of reach. I do worry a little bit about a backdoor cover but not enough to not make this one of my best bets of the weekend. Once again I hope God does not take this the wrong way, but lay the points the Pats will move on and the Broncos will go home.  I am also making the OVER 50 ½ in this game as my last best bet of the weekend as I think the final score could be something like 38-21. This pick should make my friends, Jim and Brian very happy.

 

 

 

 

 

As always remember to bet with your head and not over it.     :)

 

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